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IEA: West Asia conflict could cause 120 bcm LNG loss from 2026-2030
The International Energy Agency warned that the West Asia conflict could reduce cumulative LNG supply by about 120 bcm from 2026 to 2030, roughly 15% of expected global supply. The loss is linked to short-term disruptions and slower capacity growth, with a temporary hit concentrated in 2026-2027 and offset by new liquefaction capacity; the March disruption from the Strait of Hormuz reduced Qatar and UAE LNG output by about 10 bcm for a month.
Why It Matters
The disruption could affect global LNG availability and prices, though the impact is expected to be offset by new capacity, delaying the LNG supply wave from upcoming projects.
Timeline
2 Events
April 24, 2026: IEA says West Asia conflict could cause 120 bcm LNG loss 2026-2030 (15% of global supply)
April 24, 2026
The IEA said the West Asia conflict could result in a loss of around 120 bcm of cumulative LNG supply between 2026 and 2030, or 15% of expected global supply, due to short-term disruptions to flows and slower capacity growth. The loss will be offset by new liquefaction facilities, but the impact on growth will be mostly this year and next, delaying the effects of an expected wave of LNG supply from new projects.
March 2026: LNG growth halted after Strait of Hormuz closure, Qatar and UAE output down ~10 bcm for the month
March 2026
LNG supply growth came to a halt in March after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which effectively reduced the combined LNG production of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates by around 10 bcm for the month.