El Nino explained: Why India could see less rain and more heat in 2026 due to this weather cycle

Snow levels act as natural water storage for rivers such as the Ganga, Indus, and Brahmaputra; lower snow increases risk of reduced river flow and drought in downstream regions.

The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development reports Hindu Kush Himalaya snow cover is 27.8% below the long-term average, the lowest in four consecutive years.

The India Meteorological Department indicates the 2026 southwest monsoon may be below normal, around 92% of the long-period average.

WMO states that during May–July 2026, many regions are likely to experience above-normal temperatures, especially in North America, Europe, and parts of Africa.

Experts say the El Nino event could strengthen later in the year, raising concerns about heat, rainfall, and water systems across regions.

Forecasts indicate El Nino may develop between May and July 2026, though forecasters note that the spring predictability barrier makes early certainty challenging; forecast confidence generally improves after April.

The World Meteorological Organization says conditions are currently neutral, but climate models are strongly aligned toward the onset of El Nino, with high confidence reported by the agency.

Globally, 2024 was the hottest year on record, driven by a strong El Nino combined with long-term warming trends.