Strong El Niño could bring less rain to India, WMO finds

Snow cover across the Hindu Kush Himalaya stands at 27.8% below the long-term average, breaking last year’s deficit of 23.6% and marking the fourth consecutive year of below-normal snow persistence. Between 2003 and 2026, the HKH region recorded 14 winters with below-normal snow persistence. Two basins showed positive persistence — the Ganges at +16.3% and the Irrawaddy at +21.8% — while the Mekong, Tibetan Plateau and Salween showed large deficits (-59.5%, -47.4%, -41.8% respectively). ICIMOD called for early, coordinated water management and drought preparedness, especially in western basins such as Amu Darya, Helmand, Indus, and Tarim.

The World Meteorological Organization’s Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates a shift in the equatorial Pacific with sea-surface temperatures rising, pointing to a likely return of El Niño as early as May–July 2026. Forecasts suggest nearly global dominance of above-normal land-surface temperatures in that period, with below-normal rainfall projected over India through July. WMO chief Wilfran Moufouma Okia noted that forecast confidence typically improves after April, even as the event could be strong.

The India Meteorological Department predicted that the forthcoming 2026 monsoon rainfall is likely to be 92% of the long-period average, with an error margin of ±5%, marking its first forecast of below-normal rain in 11 years and attributing the outlook to the El Niño phenomenon.