WMO: El Niño likely by mid-2026; India faces heat and below-normal monsoon; ICIMOD notes HKH snow deficit

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Seasonal Climate Update signals a likely onset of El Niño by mid-2026 (potentially as early as May–July) and indicates widespread above-normal land temperatures with below-normal rainfall projected over India through July. Forecasters say there is high confidence in the onset and potential intensification of El Niño, though spring predictability remains a challenge.

The Hindustan Times reported on April 13, 2026, that the India Meteorological Department predicted monsoon rainfall for 2026 is likely to be about 92% of the long-period average, with an error margin of ±5%. This would mark IMD's first prediction of below-normal rain in 11 years, attributed to the El Niño phenomenon.

ICIMOD's Snow Update 2026 reports Hindu Kush Himalaya snow cover at 27.8% below the long-term average, surpassing last year's deficit of 23.6% and marking the fourth consecutive year of below-normal snow persistence. Positive snow persistence was recorded in the Ganges (+16.3%) and Irrawaddy (+21.8%), but large deficits persisted in the Mekong (-59.5%), Tibetan Plateau (-47.4%), and Salween (-41.8%), indicating regional water resource stress and the need for coordinated drought preparedness.

In early April 2026, the ENSO system was in a neutral phase following the end of the 2025–26 La Niña. Observations indicated near-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and increasing subsurface heat content. Forecasts suggested ENSO-neutral conditions would persist through boreal spring, with El Niño potentially emerging in the boreal summer or autumn and possibly persisting into year-end.