Who is making decisions in Iran? Timeline of leadership and power during wartime

Observers say the supreme leader's authority exists but is not visibly exercised, the presidency is aligned but not leading, diplomacy is active but not decisive, and the IRGC holds key levers without a single public architect. The result is a system with a vacuum of interpretation and a drift rather than a clear, unified strategy.

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf has emerged as one of the most visible figures, addressing the public and inserting himself into negotiations. Within Parliament and conservative networks, resistance to negotiations remains strong. He says his actions align with Mojtaba Khamenei's wishes, but there is little visible evidence of direct coordination.

Control over the Strait of Hormuz sits with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), led by Ahmad Vahidi, rather than the diplomatic team, giving the IRGC decisive leverage in crisis decisions.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi continues to represent Tehran in talks with the United States, under President Masoud Pezeshkian, but neither appears to be setting strategy. The Iranian delegation is headed by Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, indicating limited control by the diplomatic team.

Khamenei has not been seen in public since taking power. Beyond a handful of written statements, including one on closing the Strait of Hormuz, there is little direct evidence of day-to-day control. The New York Times reported this week that he may have suffered several injuries, including to his face that could affect his ability to speak.

The leadership distributed a message to Iranians on mobile phones saying there is no such thing as a hardliner or moderate in Iran — there is just one nation, one course.

Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role of supreme leader following the killing of his father Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war. In Iran's system, the leader has final word on war, peace, and the state's strategic direction.