Warning of record global temperatures as chance of very strong El Niño grows

The article notes a peak global temperature of about 2.7C above the long-term average recorded in 1877, and explains there was limited observation at the time, leading to substantial uncertainty in that figure.

Met Office researchers say El Niño years can raise the risk of colder winters in the UK.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting fertiliser distribution and increasing prices, with implications for harvests and food supply.

Scientists warn of drought, wildfires, and impacts on global food stocks; fertiliser distribution disruptions via the Strait of Hormuz may raise prices and affect harvests; increased hardship for poverty-affected communities is noted.

Some forecast data suggest the temperature rise could exceed 3C, potentially surpassing the 1877 peak.

ECMWF models suggest more than half of forecast models indicate temperature increases of over 2.5C by autumn.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology uses a threshold of 0.8C above average and indicators such as reversed trade winds to signal El Niño.

Forecasts show a two-in-three chance that El Niño will be strong or very strong by winter, with potential for a very strong event.

Parts of the Pacific have been warming rapidly, with sea surface temperatures around 0.5C above normal this week, a threshold used to signal the onset of El Niño.

The article notes that following the 2023/24 El Niño, the world experienced the hottest year on record.

Major flooding hit Peru in 2017 following a strong El Niño event.

The last 'very strong' El Niño happened in 2015-2016, with the Niño3.4 temperature rise reaching about 2.4C above the long-term average.