War drones on: From blitz to grind - is Putin's Ukraine strategy starting to crack?

Putin scaled back plans for the May 9 Red Square parade amid concerns that Ukrainian drone strikes could reach Moscow, illustrating how the war has expanded into Russian territory.

April 2026 saw a net territorial loss of approximately 116 square kilometers in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area. Siversk fell, and a renewed battle for Lyman developed with Russian advances through Yampil and Drobysheve. On the Zaporizhzhia front, Stepnohirsk was captured and Russian forces pressed toward the Kinska River, with Zaporizhzhia identified as a plausible medium-term target. The Donbas fortress belt remained under severe pressure. Additionally, 243 Ukrainian drones were reported shot down over Leningrad Oblast in three months, and Russia endured a concentrated long-range campaign complicating Ukrainian logistics and rear-area operations.

In March 2026, Ukraine intercepted about 33,000 Russian unmanned aerial vehicles, signaling a dramatic escalation in drone activity and a shift toward long-range Ukrainian strikes against Russian targets.

Ukraine blocked Russia's use of Starlink terminals on the battlefield, while the Kremlin throttled Telegram, hindering frontline coordination and contributing to a slower assault tempo.

The article notes that the current fighting is the first since Russia's Kursk incursion in August 2024, highlighting a shift from earlier warfare to a grinding, protracted conflict.

Russia's glide bomb campaign expanded from about 40,000 glide bombs in 2024 to roughly 60,000 in 2025, reflecting a rapid increase in long-range strike capacity.

Ukraine's Fire Point FP-1 drone production expanded from a few hundred units in 2023 to tens of thousands in 2024, with the company employing around 3,700 people.