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US soldier charged after winning $409,000 betting on Maduro removal
An active-duty US Army soldier at Fort Bragg is charged with insider trading after allegedly using classified information to trade on Polymarket about the removal of Nicolas Maduro. He reportedly netted more than $409,000 from the bets. Maduro and his wife were captured in Caracas in January 2026 and transported to New York for investigation.
Why It Matters
The case raises questions about insider trading in prediction markets and the handling of classified information by military personnel.
Timeline
8 Events
April 23, 2026 – Trump comments on insider trading concerns
April 23, 2026
President Donald Trump commented that he had not heard about the alleged betting but would look into it, and said prediction markets could raise concerns about insider trading.
April 23, 2026 – CFTC files insider-trading complaint
April 23, 2026
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a complaint accusing Van Dyke of insider trading.
April 23, 2026 – Polymarket reports detection of trading on classified information
April 23, 2026
Polymarket said it identified a user trading on classified government information and referred the matter to the DOJ, cooperating with the investigation.
April 23, 2026 – Indictment unsealed and charges announced
April 23, 2026
The Department of Justice unsealed an indictment charging Gannon Ken Van Dyke with unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud and making an unlawful monetary transaction.
January 6, 2026 – Planning window extended to at least this date
January 6, 2026
Prosecutors say the planning and execution window for Operation Absolute Resolve extended to at least January 6, 2026.
January 3, 2026 – Maduro raid and transfer to New York
January 3, 2026
U.S. forces seized Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores from their Caracas compound in a night-time raid and brought them to New York to face allegations of weapon and drug offences, which they deny.
December 26, 2025 – Van Dyke creates Polymarket account and begins trading
December 26, 2025
Van Dyke created a Polymarket account and began trading on Maduro- and Venezuela-related markets.
December 8, 2025 – Planning of Operation Absolute Resolve begins
December 8, 2025
Federal prosecutors allege that Van Dyke began planning Operation Absolute Resolve and had access to sensitive, nonpublic information about the operation.