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UDF’s big gains came in minority dominated districts
An analysis shows the Congress-led UDF's gains in Kerala were strongest in districts with significant minority populations. In Muslim-significant districts, the UDF secured a majority of seats and posted higher vote shares, with Malappuram and Kozhikode delivering notable UDF wins, while the LDF saw declines from 2021 across these belts.
Why It Matters
The results suggest targeted support in minority-dominated districts is shaping Kerala's political landscape and could influence future campaigning strategies.
Timeline
2 Events
May 5, 2026: Article published on minority-dominated district gains
May 5, 2026
The analysis notes the UDF achieved higher vote shares in minority-populated districts: 51.9% in districts with significant Muslim populations and 50.2% in districts with significant Christian populations, versus 42.1% in the rest of the state. It uses district-level Census 2011 data as a proxy for minority presence (>30%). The Muslim-significant region (Kasaragod, Kozhikode, Malappuram) has 34 seats; the UDF won 31 of them, with Malappuram a complete UDF sweep (16 seats) and Kozhikode delivering 11 of 13 seats. Across these 34 constituencies, LDF’s vote share fell by an average of 7.7 percentage points from 2021, while UDF’s rose by 7.6 points; the UDF improved in every seat in this bucket, and the LDF declined in 32 of 34 seats.
2021 baseline in minority-significant districts
2021
In the Muslim-significant belt comprising Kasaragod, Kozhikode and Malappuram (34 assembly seats), the UDF won 31 seats and the LDF won 3. Malappuram saw a complete UDF sweep with 16 seats; Kozhikode yielded 11 UDF seats out of 13. These results form the baseline for the reported shift in vote shares from 2021.