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The insider trading suspicions looming over Trump's presidency
The article outlines patterns of trading around Trump’s public statements and policy moves, including large oil futures and stock bets made ahead of announcements. It discusses whether these trades constitute illegal insider trading or reflect traders anticipating presidential actions, and notes regulatory scrutiny and the rise of online prediction markets.
Why It Matters
If genuine, the patterns raise concerns about market manipulation and access to insider information by officials or associates, prompting potential regulatory investigations and prosecutions.
Timeline
10 Events
Oil/trade activity around April 18, 2026
April 18, 2026
18:29 GMT: Oil bets surge; 19:16 GMT: Trump says war is nearly complete; 19:17 GMT: Oil drops by 25%. The public would first know of the interview at 15:16 Eastern Time (19:16 GMT) when the reporter posted about it on X.
Oil/trade activity around March 23, 2026
March 23, 2026
10:48-10:50 GMT: Oil bets surge in anticipation of events; 11:04 GMT: Trump posts about a 'total resolution' to hostilities; 11:05 GMT: Oil drops by 11%.
White House email warning on insider info (March 2026)
March 2026
The White House sent an internal email to staff warning them not to use insider information to place bets on prediction markets.
Polymarket and Kalshi outline rules in March 2026
March 2026
In March 2026, Polymarket and Kalshi outlined new rules to crack down on insider trading on prediction markets.
Accounts win $1.2m on February 28, 2026
February 28, 2026
By February 28, 2026, the six accounts collectively earned about $1.2 million from trades related to Iran-related events and a later ceasefire.
Six Polymarket accounts created
February 2026
Six accounts were created on Polymarket in February 2026, all placing wagers on a US strike on Iran before the February 28 milestone.
Burdensome-Mix places first bet on Maduro
December 30, 2025
On December 30, 2025, Burdensome-Mix placed its first bet that Maduro would be ousted by the end of January 2026 and subsequently won $436,000 when Maduro was seized the following day.
Burdensome-Mix Polymarket account created
December 2025
A Polymarket account named Burdensome-Mix was created. This account would later place bets on Venezuela's Maduro being ousted.
Tariffs pause announced on April 9, 2025
April 9, 2025
A week later, Trump announced a 90-day pause on levies for all countries except China. The S&P 500 jumped about 9.5% that day, marking one of its largest single-day gains in recent memory, with trading volume spiking.
Tariffs announced on April 2, 2025
April 2, 2025
Trump announced sweeping tariffs on goods from virtually every country, referred to as 'Liberation Day' tariffs. Market activity showed unusual forward trading as investors positioned for the decision.