Opinion: Opinion | Why The US State Secretary Believes That The Dollar Is Finished

Iran began charging tolls for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz denominated in Chinese yuan (about $2 million per vessel), with Lloyd’s List confirming the toll and Iran’s embassy in Zimbabwe declaring the era of the petroyuan had arrived.

Gulf producers cut crude output by at least 10 million barrels per day in March; Qatar declared force majeure on LNG exports after Ras Laffan facility strikes.

Deutsche Bank researchers, writing in March 2026, stated that Project mBridge is already at a minimum viable stage.

In the weeks after February, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to above 4.4%, signaling a shift in pull-to-safety flows.

The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 3.9% at the end of February 2026, with yields rising in the following weeks.

The US-Israel military actions on Iran in February 2026 are described as costly and as contributing to pressure on the dollar system, including currency defenses by importing nations.

Gulf producers held approximately $300 billion in US Treasuries as of January 2026, with ongoing adjustments to reserve management.

The piece references the Hamas attacks of October 2023 as part of recent crises impacting energy markets and global finance.

The article notes that, as recently as 2023, JP Morgan Chase estimated roughly 80% of global oil transactions were still settled in dollars.

Russia’s actions in 2022 triggered sanctions that tested the dollar’s dominance and the resilience of the global financial system.

The article points to Iran as an early example of the dollar system’s vulnerability, with sanctions beginning in 2012 and affecting access to key financial channels.

China floated its exchange rate in the 2010s, reflecting shifts in global currency arrangements that interact with the dollar’s dominance.

The piece notes that for the first time since 1996, global central banks hold more gold in aggregate than US government bonds, highlighting a diversification away from dollar reserves.

The article notes that Japan was browbeaten into destabilising currency appreciation in the mid-1980s as part of the dollar system's dynamics.

In 1977, Bent Larsen was asked whether he preferred to be lucky or good; Kenneth Rogoff uses the anecdote in Our Dollar, Your Problem to illustrate how the dollar’s dominance has involved both luck and skill.

Henry Kissinger struck a deal in which Saudi Arabia would price its oil in dollars and park the surpluses in US Treasuries, with security guarantees from the United States; the rest of the GCC followed.

The 1973 Arab oil embargo accelerated North Sea development, Alaskan drilling, and the first serious investments in nuclear and renewable power, signaling a shift in energy security and pricing that reinforced the dollar’s role in global markets.