Oil Revenue vs Ukraine War Bills: Is Russia Hiding Economic Stress?

The Central Bank of Russia expects inflation to slow to about 5% by year-end.

President Vladimir Putin dismisses weak patches in the economy as seasonal factors.

Euromaidan Press reports Russia is spending about 47 billion rubles ($625 million) per day on the war in Ukraine.

Researchers at the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) say since 2022, Russian economic indicators have become part of the propaganda narrative.

Sweden's Military Intelligence and Security Service (MUST) says Russia presents data in a way that makes the country appear more resilient than it really is.

Deficits widen and the non-oil deficit remains deeply negative, indicating continued reliance on energy to balance books.

Russia's direct defence spending is estimated to reach about $137.9–$142 billion in 2025, roughly 7.3% of GDP.

SITE and others compare official CPI with the ROMIR FMCG deflator, highlighting discrepancies in inflation readings.

Rosstat revised inflation basket and CPI methods multiple times between 2022 and 2024, a pattern cited by SITE researchers as a way to influence inflation measurements.

Industrial production for 2022 was revised from -0.6% to +0.6% a year later, illustrating large positive revisions to past data cited by researchers.

Researchers note that after February 2022, dozens of Russian agencies stopped releasing data, raising questions about data transparency in the economy.

Rosstat revised the inflation basket and CPI methods multiple times between 2022 and 2024; researchers argue such changes can affect the weight of fast-rising goods in inflation measurements.