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Monsoon to arrive early but El Niño set to undercut rainy season in India
The India Meteorological Department expects the southwest monsoon to reach Kerala by May 26, 2026, about six days earlier than the normal onset, with a margin of error of four days. The forecast also notes favorable conditions for progress across southern regions and warns that an emerging El Niño could weaken rainfall later in the season. Historical reference: last year the monsoon arrived early in Kerala on May 24.
Why It Matters
Monsoon rainfall supports roughly half of India's farmland. An early onset could bring relief from heat and aid farming, but the El Niño pattern could reduce overall rainfall later in the season, affecting agriculture and water resources.
Timeline
2 Events
IMD forecasts early monsoon onset in Kerala and related conditions
May 16, 2026
The article reports that the India Meteorological Department expects the southwest monsoon to set in over Kerala on May 26, 2026, nearly six days earlier than the normal onset of June 1, with a model error margin of plus or minus four days. The onset over Kerala is considered the official beginning of the southwest monsoon season over the Indian mainland, from which the monsoon gradually moves northward across the country. The IMD also said conditions are favourable for the monsoon to advance over parts of the south Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Its extended-range forecast shows widespread rainfall along the southern west coast until May 28. The article warns that a developing El Niño pattern in the Pacific could weaken the monsoon later in the season.
Last year's early Kerala onset
May 24, 2025
According to the article, last year the monsoon reached Kerala early, on May 24, 2025.