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In 22 Days, Iran Will Run Out Of Place To Store Oil It Produces. What's Next?
Iran is nearing its crude storage limits as US naval blockades curb exports. Kpler says only 12-22 days of unused storage remain, risking further declines in production by about 1.5 million bpd by mid-May after a sharp export drop to around 567,000 bpd. The piece also notes sanctions dynamics, payments due for pre-war shipments, and ongoing diplomacy and pressure surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
Why It Matters
The storage crunch and continued production cuts could tighten global oil supplies and heighten geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, with broad implications for energy markets and sanctions policy.
Timeline
7 Events
Iranian diplomacy and US response notes
April 29, 2026
Iran submitted a proposal to regional intermediaries offering to cease military operations in the Strait of Hormuz; the US response has been described as cold, with reports that President Trump has directed aides to prepare for an extended naval blockade.
Payments and sanctions context described
April 29, 2026
Payments for crude shipped before the war are due. The US had previously unveiled a sanctions waiver enabling some buyers to import Iranian oil, while loadings have plunged by roughly 70% since the blockade.
Current export levels and March average disclosed
April 29, 2026
Iranian crude shipments have fallen to about 567,000 barrels per day, with exports averaging about 1.85 million barrels per day in March.
Storage capacity and potential production impact warned by analysts
April 29, 2026
Kpler analysts say Iran has only 12 to 22 days of unused storage capacity left, potentially forcing an additional output cut of about 1.5 million barrels per day by mid-May.
Goldman Sachs notes Iran’s production cuts since the war
April 22, 2026
Goldman Sachs said Iran had curtailed about 2.5 million barrels per day of crude production since the start of the war.
Gulf producers reduce output since the conflict began
February 28, 2026
Other Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE, have reduced output since the conflict erupted on February 28.
War erupts and US naval blockade targets Iranian oil exports
February 28, 2026
The war between Iran and the United States and Israel begins, triggering a US naval blockade of Iran's ports near the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 2 million barrels per day of Iranian oil exports are blocked from entering world markets.