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How UAE's exit could affect Opec's influence over the oil price
The United Arab Emirates plans to leave Opec and act independently, a move described as potentially undermining the organisation's grip on oil prices amid volatile markets. The report frames this against historic Opec actions and recent shocks, including a major supply disruption linked to geopolitical tensions.
Why It Matters
If UAE exits, Opec's ability to influence prices could weaken, shifting influence toward other producers and the broader U.S. and non-Opec dynamics.
Timeline
10 Events
UAE plans to exit Opec
April 29, 2026
The UAE announced plans to ditch Opec and strike out alone, a move described as a potential blow to the organisation and described by some as the 'beginning of the end of Opec'. The report places this amid ongoing market volatility and geopolitical tensions, including disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Opec share of global crude in 2025
2025
As of 2025 Opec produced 36.7% of global crude oil, reflecting its diminished share since the 1970s.
UAE 2025 oil production
2025
According to Opec data, the UAE produced 3.1 million barrels per day in 2025.
UAE among top exporters in 2025
2025
The UAE was the world's third biggest oil exporter in 2025, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, according to Opec data.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine
2022
In early 2022, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine prompted later changes in oil supply policies by major producers.
COVID-19 pandemic and production cuts
2020
During the coronavirus pandemic, crude oil prices crashed, and Opec+ slashed production to boost prices.
Opec+ formed (2016)
2016
Opec joined forces with 10 other oil producers, including Russia, to create the broader Opec+ alliance.
Iranian Revolution and 1979 oil shock
1979
The Iranian Revolution contributed to a second oil shock in 1979, affecting global oil prices and supply dynamics.
October 1973 oil embargo
October 1973
Arab oil producers announced an embargo on countries led by the United States over support for Israel during the Yom Kippur War, alongside a coordinated cut to oil production, sending prices higher.
Opec formed
1960
OPEC was formed in 1960 by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela to defend the interests of major oil exporters by coordinating production to ensure steady revenue for its members.