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How the winner-takes-all voting system has turned on Labour and the Tories
The article analyzes how first-past-the-post is producing a fragmented and sometimes disproportional outcome in the UK, with Reform and Greens surging in local elections and Labour and the Conservatives losing ground. It contrasts a 2024 general election two-party dynamic with a 2026 local-election landscape that produced strong showings for smaller parties and more no-majority councils.
Why It Matters
The results suggest a potential shift in UK electoral dynamics, with increased power for smaller parties and more minority or coalition governance at local level, possibly influencing national political strategies.
Timeline
9 Events
May 9, 2026 – Article publication
May 9, 2026
The article was published on May 9, 2026, with analysis by researchers including John Curtice and others.
May 7, 2026 – No overall control rises in local councils
May 7, 2026
One in three of the 63 councils with all seats up for grabs were in no overall control, a shift from the previous situation where only a handful had that status.
May 7, 2026 – Liberal Democrats: net gain near 100 seats despite vote decline
May 7, 2026
The Liberal Democrats’ vote share was down on average by about four points, yet the party achieved a net gain of nearly 100 seats due to greater losses by other parties in a crowded field.
May 7, 2026 – Reform's seat share outstrips vote share in multi-seat councils
May 7, 2026
In councils where Reform won more than half the seats, Reform won 36% of the vote on average but secured as much as 67% of the seats.
May 7, 2026 – London wards Ealing and Merton: Labour leads with 29% of vote
May 7, 2026
In Ealing and Merton in London, Labour won 66% of the seats in Ealing and 56% in Merton despite receiving only 29% of the vote in each ward.
May 7, 2026 – Manchester City Council: Greens win 56% of seats on 37% vote
May 7, 2026
In Manchester, the Green Party won 56% of the seats at stake, on the back of about 37% of the vote.
May 7, 2026 – Westminster City Council: Conservatives gain control
May 7, 2026
In Westminster, the Conservatives gained control of the council. Conservative support fell by five points in the borough, Labour's support fell by 17 points, and the Greens won 17% of the vote but no seats.
May 7, 2026 – Local elections results: Reform and Greens lead in council seats
May 7, 2026
With most results declared, Reform and the Greens jointly held 2,063 council seats, about 199 more than Conservatives and Labour's 1,864. The Liberal Democrats stood at 842 seats.
December 12, 2024 – General election results: Conservative and Labour win 533 seats; Reform and Greens win 9 seats combined
December 12, 2024
In the 2024 UK general election, the Conservative Party and Labour Party together won 533 seats. Reform and the Greens together won nine seats, despite accounting for more than 20% of the vote between them.