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How election results in states will change Rajya Sabha math
A reshuffle will move 15 Rajya Sabha seats starting in 2027, with biennial polls due in Kerala, Assam, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry over the next two years. West Bengal polls are scheduled from 2029 onward, with projections indicating shifts in party tallies, including gains for Congress and a small gain for BJP, plus regional changes in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
Why It Matters
The evolving Rajya Sabha balance could affect lawmaking and governance in the upcoming term.
Timeline
8 Events
Overall Rajya Sabha tally projections for next two years
May 5, 2026
The Congress’s Rajya Sabha tally is projected to rise from 29 to 32 seats; the BJP will gain one seat to reach 114; the DMK would be reduced to seven seats from eight; Vijay’s TVK can enter the Rajya Sabha with three seats; AIADMK’s tally will decline to five from six.
West Bengal 2029-2032: all 16 Rajya Sabha seats up for re-election; TMC not expected to lose seats till 2029
May 5, 2026
Between 2029 and 2032, all 16 Rajya Sabha seats in West Bengal will be up for re-election. The TMC, which lost the West Bengal polls, is not projected to lose any seats till 2029, as there are no vacancies from the system.
Tamil Nadu 2028 biennial polls: six seats up for election; current distribution
May 5, 2026
Tamil Nadu will see six Rajya Sabha seats up for biennial polls in 2028. Currently, Congress has one MP, DMK has three, and AIADMK has two from these six seats.
Assam 2028 biennial polls: BJP to win both seats; net gain of one seat
May 5, 2026
In Assam, the BJP is set to win both seats in the 2028 biennial elections, leading to a net gain of one seat for the BJP from the state.
Kerala 2028 biennial polls: UDF to win remaining three seats
May 5, 2026
The UDF is projected to win the three additional Kerala Rajya Sabha seats in the biennial polls in 2028.
Puducherry 2027 biennial polls: NDA to retain lone seat
May 5, 2026
In Puducherry, the NDA will retain its lone Rajya Sabha seat in the 2027 biennial polls.
Kerala 2027 biennial polls: UDF to win three seats
May 5, 2026
In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF is set to win three of the six Kerala Rajya Sabha seats that go to biennial polls in 2027 and 2028. A party needs a minimum of 36 votes to win a seat; the LDF has 35 MLAs, so this result would be a major boost for the Congress and is described as a net gain of four seats from the state.
Rajya Sabha reshuffle begins with 15 seats up for election next year
May 5, 2026
Starting next year, the Rajya Sabha will undergo a reshuffle in 15 seats as a result of the latest round of assembly elections. Biennial elections are due in Kerala, Assam, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during the next two years, while West Bengal has no Rajya Sabha polls before the 2029 Lok Sabha elections; between 2029 and 2032, all 16 Rajya Sabha seats in West Bengal will be up for re-election. TMC, which lost the West Bengal polls, will not lose any seats till 2029 as there are no vacancies from the system.