BackECONOMY
How climate change threatens Kiribati’s tuna-driven economy
Kiribati relies on selling tuna fishing licenses for a large share of government revenue, but warming Pacific waters threaten tuna stocks and could reduce licensing income. The country faces potential losses even as international aid and diversification efforts seek to shore up food security and finances. The article documents past revenues, projected declines, and plans to build resilience through processing, farming, and diversification.
Why It Matters
More than 70% of Kiribati's government income comes from tuna licenses, making its economy highly vulnerable to changes in tuna stocks and migration driven by climate change.
Timeline
8 Events
Local catches expected to decline under both high and low emission scenarios
2050
Local fishermen in Kiribati are expected to see a decrease in catches under both high- and low-emission scenarios, adding to food security concerns as demand for imported foods grows.
Line Islands projected to be most affected under low-emission scenario
2050
The Line Islands are projected to be the worst affected, with an estimated two-thirds loss under the low-emission scenario.
Best-case low-emission scenario: no decrease in tuna biomass predicted
2050
Under a best-case analysis of much lower emissions, the Ministry says no decrease in tuna biomass is predicted within Kiribati’s exclusive economic zone.
Projected loss of fishing access fees by 2050 under high-emission scenarios
2050
Kiribati’s Ministry of Fisheries said preliminary modelling could see a loss of more than $10 million in fishing access fees per year by 2050 if global greenhouse gas emissions remain high, threatening government revenue.
Kiribati responds with diversification and processing expansion
April 26, 2026
In response to climate risks to tuna stocks, Kiribati plans to expand its tuna processing and canning facilities and to develop ocean farming of species such as milkfish, snapper and sea cucumbers, along with diversification into tourism, renewable energy, and an offshore sovereign wealth fund.
Pacific Community warns Kiribati could be among worst affected by tuna stock migration
November 2025
A communique issued in November 2025 by the Pacific Community warned that warming Pacific waters could cause tuna to migrate eastwards to cooler temperatures, reducing demand for Kiribati’s fishing licenses and threatening the country’s revenue base.
UN Green Climate Fund launches adaption project for tuna-dependent Pacific Island economies
2025
The United Nations’ Green Climate Fund launched its $156.8 million project to adapt tuna-dependent Pacific Island communities and economies to climate change, covering 14 countries and territories. The initiative aims to strengthen warning systems and food security, and to provide around four million nutritious fish meals annually for Kiribati.
Kiribati earned $137 million from fishing licenses in 2024
2024
Kiribati generated $137 million from selling fishing licenses in 2024. Licensing revenue has been described as a critical financial lifeline, contributing to almost three-quarters of government income between 2018 and 2022 and amounting to roughly two-fifths of the country’s GDP (per IMF).