Global Energy Shock From Iran War May Extend Till 2027: Saudi Aramco Chief
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin H. Nasser warned that the global energy supply shock from the Iran war and Hormuz blockade could persist until 2027, even if Hormuz reopens soon. The article notes a Q1 2026 profit rise for Aramco, a sharp oil-price surge from February to March, and ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure affecting supply and potential demand rebound.
Why It Matters
The timeline illustrates how regional conflict can trigger a global energy crisis with potential long-lasting effects on oil supply, prices, and economic recovery.
Timeline
10 Events
May 11, 2026: East-West pipeline used at max capacity amid blockade
Saudi Arabia has used the East-West pipeline at its maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day to deliver oil despite the Hormuz blockade.
May 11, 2026: Saudi energy infrastructure targeted in Riyadh, Eastern Province, and Yanbu
Iran's attacks during the war targeted civilian energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, including facilities in Riyadh, the Eastern Province and Yanbu.
May 11, 2026: Nasser warns of largest energy supply shock; potential 2027 normalisation
"The energy supply shock that began in the first quarter is the largest the world has ever experienced," said Amin H. Nasser. He noted that even if the Strait of Hormuz opens immediately, it will take months to rebalance; if opening is delayed by a few weeks, normalisation could last into 2027.
May 10, 2026: Aramco Q1 2026 net profit rises >25% YoY
Aramco announced a net profit rise of more than 25% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year, fueled by higher oil prices as exports remain blocked in the Strait of Hormuz.
May 10, 2026: Trump rejects Tehran's response as 'totally unacceptable'
US President Donald Trump rejected Tehran's response to Washington's proposal as 'totally unacceptable'.
April 2026: US-Iran talks yield a truce but no lasting deal
US-Iran talks failed to produce a lasting deal following a truce reached in April 2026.
March 2026: Offsets from bypass flows, SPR releases, and East-West pipeline
Losses were partly offset by flows bypassing Hormuz, the release of strategic government petroleum reserves, and the East-West pipeline, which Saudi Arabia has used at up to 7 million barrels per day.
March 2026: Unprecedented oil supply loss cited at ~880-1000 million bbl
The market faced an unprecedented loss of about a billion barrels of oil, with Nasser citing roughly 880 million barrels. If disruptions continue at the current rate, the market could lose about 100 million barrels per week while the Strait remains closed.
March 2026: Oil surpasses $100 as Hormuz disruptions intensify
Crude prices jumped to more than $100 a barrel in March as Iran's shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz sparked a global energy crisis.
February 2026: Energy shock begins as prices around mid-$60s
The energy supply shock began in the first quarter of 2026, with crude prices around the mid-$60s per barrel in early February as the crisis began to unfold.