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Fuel Prices Jump 35% Since Iran Conflict, Pre-War Levels May Take Months
Since the Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026, global oil prices have surged by roughly 35-50%. Brent crude peaked above $119 per barrel in March, then eased below $100 but remained volatile. Officials warn that U.S. gasoline prices could stay elevated for months even as some prices retreat.
Why It Matters
The price shock affects consumers and global energy markets, with continued disruption in Hormuz keeping prices volatile and potentially prolonging higher gasoline costs in the US.
Timeline
11 Events
Analysts warn of sluggish path back to cheaper fuel
April 20, 2026
With a fragile cease-fire, damaged facilities, and thinner tanker traffic, analysts say the path back to cheaper fuel looks sluggish.
Sultan Al Jaber on Hormuz reopening
April 20, 2026
"The Strait of Hormuz is a global waterway, and it must return to the world, exactly as it was," said Sultan Al Jaber.
Reopening shipping lanes unlikely to quickly reverse prices
April 20, 2026
Oil executives say reopening shipping lanes will not quickly reverse pump prices, with experts noting prices may rise quickly and fall slowly.
Forecast for November 2026 fuel prices
April 20, 2026
Data suggests that fuel prices in November 2026 could be around current levels, or slightly higher.
Trump says spike described as short term
April 20, 2026
US President Donald Trump had earlier described the spike in fuel prices as short term.
Peace negotiations conclude without concrete results; Hormuz disruption continues
April 20, 2026
With US-Iran peace negotiations concluding without any concrete result, the Strait of Hormuz is expected to remain disrupted, contributing to ongoing price pressures.
US Secretary of Energy warns prices may stay above $3/gal
April 20, 2026
US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said gasoline prices in the US may stay above $3 for longer than earlier hoped, noting that prices may have peaked but could remain elevated for months, or possibly longer.
Oil prices dip below $100 per barrel
April 20, 2026
Oil prices have shot below $100 per barrel, though the market remains volatile as the conflict persists.
AAA price data shows US gasoline at $4.05/gallon
April 19, 2026
Data from the American Automobile Association, cited by The New York Times, shows the national average at $4.05 a gallon on Sunday, April 19, 2026, up from $2.98 before the conflict began.
Brent crude peaks in March
March 2026
Brent crude rose to its peak in March at over $119 per barrel, up from $70 before the war.
Conflict in Iran begins
February 28, 2026
The article notes the beginning of a fresh conflict in Iran on February 28, 2026.