Axis My India Exit Poll Predicts UDF Comeback Against LDF in Kerala (Keralam), 2026

The article notes that the state was recently rechristened as Keralam.

The article suggests that a UDF victory in Kerala could be a major setback for the Left movement across India, following earlier losses in West Bengal and Tripura.

The article carries a health warning that exit polls often get it wrong.

Axis My India's poll projects the Bharatiya Janata Party to win between 0 and 3 seats in Kerala.

The votes for the 140-member Assembly will be counted on May 4 along with counting in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry.

Axis My India's exit poll projects a UDF majority in Kerala's 140-member Assembly, with UDF predicted to win 78-90 seats and the LDF 49-62 seats; BJP projected to win 0-3 seats. Majority mark is 71. The poll is based on 24,419 interviews (51% male, 41% female). Three other exit polls also predict a UDF win: Peoples Pulse (75-85 seats), Vote Vibe (70-80) and Peoples Insight (66-76). Health warning: exit polls often get it wrong.

78.27% of the electorate turned up to vote on April 9, 2024, a turnout figure described as close to the state's highest.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the LDF won just one of Kerala's 20 seats. A series of by-elections followed in which, apart from one constituency, the rest were won convincingly by the UDF.

Kerala has historically alternated between the LDF and UDF in its elections. In 2021 the electorate returned the Pinarayi Vijayan-led government for a second term.

In the 2021 Kerala Assembly polls, the Left Democratic Front won 99 seats, the United Democratic Front won 41 seats, and the National Democratic Front failed to win any constituency.