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Antarctica’s 2024 winter heatwave: 28°C rise linked to climate change and future extremes
In mid-2024, East Antarctica experienced a winter heatwave with temperatures up to 28°C above average for more than two weeks, linked to atmospheric disturbance amplified by human-caused climate change. The event followed a March 2022 heatwave and involved a weakened polar vortex, stratospheric warming, a high-pressure system, and an atmospheric river that transported heat inland, with near-record low sea ice and warm surrounding waters amplifying the effect.
Why It Matters
The events illustrate how climate change is increasing the likelihood and intensity of polar temperature extremes, which can influence ice shelf stability and global sea levels.
Timeline
6 Events
April 25, 2026 study notes on climate-change role
April 25, 2026
Our analysis, using computer simulations to compare today's climate with a world without human influence, shows climate change made the 2024 winter heatwave stronger and more likely, and could increase its frequency by up to 20 times by the end of the century under high emissions.
August 2024 continuation of heatwave
August 2024
The heatwave persisted into August 2024, with another surge in early August.
July 2024 sea ice and Southern Ocean conditions
July 2024
Antarctic sea ice was near record lows, and the surrounding Southern Ocean was unusually warm, likely linked to the same large-scale atmospheric conditions and helping sustain heat into the continent.
July 2024 start of winter heatwave
July 2024
A persistent high-pressure system over East Antarctica opened a pathway for a long, narrow plume of warm, moisture-rich air (an atmospheric river) to move deep into the continent, initiating the winter heatwave.
Early July 2024 stratospheric warming
July 2024
The Antarctic polar vortex weakened and distorted, leading to unusual warming in the stratosphere, with temperatures rising by more than 15°C in early July.
March 2022 Antarctic temperature anomaly
March 2022
In March 2022, temperatures in some Antarctic areas rose by nearly 40°C above average, one of the largest temperature anomalies ever recorded.