Amazon rainforest tipping point risk at 1.9°C warming: PIK study in Nature

The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) study published in Nature projects that with warming of 1.5-1.9°C and deforestation at 22-28% of the region, up to about two-thirds of the Amazon could degrade to savannah-like ecosystems. Without additional deforestation, such drying would require warming around 3.7-4°C. Lead author Nico Wunderling notes that deforestation weakens the forest’s rainfall generation by disrupting moisture recycling. Co-author Arie Staal adds that moisture transport disruptions can cause cascading drought effects across hundreds to thousands of kilometres. The study emphasizes that up to half of the region’s rainfall is generated by trees, and losing rainforest weakens this moisture recycling. It identifies Amazon degradation as one of several global tipping points and cites droughts in 2005, 2010, 2015-16 and 2023-24 as evidence of increasing stress.

At COP30 in Belém, Brazil, 196 countries agreed to halt and reverse deforestation and forest degradation by 2030 under Article 5 of the Paris Agreement.

The paper notes severe droughts in 2024 that have already had major impacts on the rainforest and are likely to recur.

The paper notes severe droughts in 2023 that have already had major impacts on the rainforest and are likely to recur.

The paper notes severe droughts in 2016 that have already had major impacts on the rainforest and are likely to recur.

The paper notes severe droughts in 2015 that have already had major impacts on the rainforest and are likely to recur.

The study references severe droughts in 2010 that have already had major impacts on the rainforest and suggest drought stress could recur.

The paper notes severe droughts in 2005 have already had major impacts on the Amazon rainforest and indicate a pattern that could become more frequent.